This College Football season has some MAJOR CHANGES. We will finally end the season with a 12 team playoff!!! This is what every fan has been waiting decades for. We will have a bracket to fill out just like NCAA Basketball and March Madness. Super Conferences are finally here so we will have to get use to seeing California teams like UCLA and USC in the Big Ten, and Stanford and SMU locked into the ACC. There were also many big coaching changes as top tier teams like Michigan and Alabama will no longer have Nick Saben and Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines. This season will truly be different than any other season has been and you can already feel the excitement!
For betting purposes, not much changes. The thing I love most about college football is…the volume. While the NFL offers 14-16 games a week, College Football provides over 100 games from which to select my bets each weekend. There is no way the bookmakers can be right with their numbers on that many games. Here are a few tips when betting NCAA Football. Let’s get ready for some football and have a great season!!!
NCAA Football Betting Primer
Guidelines I rely on when betting on NCAA Football
- NEVER TEASE: Do not ever tease College Football games, especially totals. Teasers are only +EV on NFL sides when the juice is right. Don’t get lured into teasing NCAAF games or you will quickly realize why such bets got their name. Yes there is the 1 out of a million shot like an Iowa game with a 28.5 pt total, but as a general rule its best to stay away from teasers in NCAAF.
- KEY NUMBERS – NOT AS KEY AS THE NFL: The key numbers we rely on in the NFL are not as strong in College Football. The NFL has some very strong key numbers (3s, 7s, etc.) that even the most seasoned professional sports bettors will buy into. The key numbers in College Football are not close to being as strong as those in the NFL, so I generally stay away from buying when betting NCAAF.
- DON’T OVERVALUE THE IMPACT OF WEATHER: Most bettors have the common misconception that a rainy day leads to a more likely under total. This is not the case. First of all, always remember that present weather conditions are already built into the totals. Sometimes a weather forecast changes mid-week, but that should not drive you to bet the under if rain is on the way. Wind and field condition knowledge can often provide advantages, but as always, it depends on the number you are getting.
- CORRELATED PARLAYS DO EXIST: While I have said many times that I don’t generally bet parlays, same game College Football parlays do occasionally hold advantages. Over/Favorite and Under/Underdog correlations can create advantages if the numbers are right. The problem is that most sports books are keen to it and simply don’t take these bets. That said, when they do and I find one I like, I strike.
- HOME FIELD MEANS MORE: Having the Home Field is much more important in college sports than it is in the pros. Though this advantage is still usually baked into the line, there are special circumstances where the bookmaker has not adjusted it correctly.
- FCS is STRONG: Some of my most profitable outcomes in ANY sport has been through betting the FCS College Football games. We have information on these small market games that just cannot be matched anywhere. Remember, FCS games are 3% plays and, as you will see, have some of the best closing line value of ANY sport we play.
Let’s Beat the Book this NCAAF Season
Good luck to everyone this season. The grind continues…
