Spring is here and that means my favorite childhood pastime starts, Major League Baseball. Watching MLB was the first sport I was ever introduced to by my father who was a huge Yankees fan. Some of my most precious memories from my youth were watching Yankees together with him. Even years later when I was living across the country in Vegas, we spent many nights talking on the phone after an exciting win, tough loss, or a trade we didn’t agree with. Everyone who follows me knows that my allegiance lies with my bankroll. But before I knew how to bet on sports, I had a love for baseball as a kid growing up in New Jersey. Now while I still love the game as a purist, my profession has shifted my focus towards how to be a winning baseball bettor. I have been betting on baseball now for 3 decades, and 3 of my top 5 most successful seasons have been the last three!!!
Betting baseball successfully for a profit, is the very definition of a grind. As we all know, MLB has the longest season of any sport and winning over the course of 162 games requires a lot of patience and discipline. With the spread of legalized sports betting we’ve been able to add MLB Daily Player Props to our arsenal along with sides and totals. Here are a couple tips to follow this MLB season that will help you stay on the profitable side.
MLB Betting Primer
1. Dime Line (10 cents): The most important tip I can give to any baseball bettor out there is to make sure you are using a book that offers a “dime line.” This means if the Yankees are playing the Red Sox and the line is even, it will be Yankees -105 and Red Sox -105. If the Yankees are a -130 favorite then the Red Sox will be +120. Having multiple outs in which to play is so important. Always line shop. Getting a few cents better odds on one play does not seem like much, but over the full 162 game season, it really adds up. For the most part, I generally will not lay big favorites. It is very rare that I ever lay more than -180 on a single baseball game. I understand in today’s market it is getting harder and harder to find a dime line, but you can still find them out there so keep searching.
2. Big Favorites: Try away from the big favorites. Personally, I do not like to lay anything over -190 on an MLB side. While some other professional bettors will lay this price or more, I have found that long term this is a losing proposition. My usual wheelhouse on sides are from +180 to -180.
3. Home Field Advantage: While I do believe home field advantage exists in college basketball, college football and in the NFL, I don’t give the same respect in MLB. While there may be a small advantage for the MLB home team, these days players are conditioned for travel. Also, being at home is almost always already baked into the line. The stadium does matter when betting totals, as does the wind. So make sure you know the location well if you are betting a total.
4. Getting the Total: Always line shop! I do bet lots of over/under totals throughout the season. The three of the biggest factors when considering a total bet are: 1) Starting pitcher matchup; 2) Weather; and 3) The plate umpire. In certain venues, like Wrigley Field and Yankee Stadium, the wind has a huge effect on the number. I have seen totals go from 8.5(-110) to 7 (-120) based on the projected wind at game time. Always remember the key numbers when betting MLB totals. I cannot stress enough how important 7 runs and 9 runs are when playing a total. I will choose to lay OVER 8.5 -125 before I take the OVER 9 -105 – i.e. it is worth laying extra the 20 cents to get the win over a push, based on the number of games that land 5-4 or 6-3. Again, line shop the best you can and always find the best number available.
5. First 5 Innings: Capitalize on the First 5 innings bet. If your handicap is based mostly on the starting pitchers, then the first 5 inning option is a good place to bet. Just like the first half in the NCAA Tournament, the First 5 line is a more true number and, for the most part, avoids the uncertainty that comes from the bullpen.
6. Prop it up: We have been attacking Pitcher Strikeout props the last couple years with great success. This is an even more pure number for our pitcher model outputs which has provided some big +EV plays.
Baseball and Betting seem to just go together since way back to 1908 and the Black Sox scandal. We lost my buddy Pete Rose this past year, and I hope he finally gets into the Hall of Fame. This season me and my team will be working around the clock to find advantages each and every day. Our MLB volume will really start to pick up in the next couple of weeks as we collect more and more data. I know most of you are Football/Basketball bettors, but betting the MLB grind has been extremely profitable so do not miss out. If you aren’t part of KrackWins Nation for the summer, now is time to join the team and get in on the action every day for the next six months. The Boys of Summer full grind is here!!!
