Fall season is finally here and that means America’s favorite sport to bet on is back…..FOOTBALL!!!
Last season NCAA Football had its first 12 team playoff and it was a major success. This season the seeding will be a little different but we will still get the same 12 team playoff to crown a champion. Ohio State is already off to a great start to repeat as champions after beating Arch Manning and the preseason #1 Texas Longhorns in week 1.
NFL starts its Week 1 with a classic NFC East battle between the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys, and then shifts to Brazil for an AFC West matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Now before you go putting your whole bankroll out on Week 1, let’s go over some of my tips for betting this football season.
Guidelines for NCAA Football
1. NEVER TEASE: Do not ever tease College Football games, especially totals. Teasers are only +EV on NFL sides when the juice is right. Don’t get lured into teasing NCAAF games or you will quickly realize why such bets got their name. Yes there is the 1 out of a million shot like an Iowa game with a 28.5 pt total, but as a general rule it’s best to stay away from teasers in NCAAF.
2. KEY NUMBERS – NOT AS KEY AS THE NFL: The key numbers we rely on in the NFL are not as strong in College Football. The NFL has some very strong key numbers (3s, 7s, etc.) that even the most seasoned professional sports bettors will buy into. The key numbers in College Football are not close to being as strong as those in the NFL, so I generally stay away from buying when betting NCAAF.
3. DON’T OVERVALUE THE IMPACT OF WEATHER: Most bettors have the common misconception that a rainy day leads to a more likely under total. This is not the case. First of all, always remember that present weather conditions are already built into the totals. Sometimes a weather forecast changes mid-week, but that should not drive you to bet the under if rain is on the way. Wind and field condition knowledge can often provide advantages, but as always, it depends on the number you are getting.
4. CORRELATED PARLAYS DO EXIST: While I have said many times that I don’t generally bet parlays, same game College Football parlays do occasionally hold advantages. Over/Favorite and Under/Underdog correlations can create advantages if the numbers are right. The problem is that most sports books are keen to it and simply don’t take these bets. That said, when they do and I find one I like, I strike.
5. HOME FIELD MEANS MORE: Having the Home Field is much more important in college sports than it is in the pros. Though this advantage is still usually baked into the line, there are special circumstances where the bookmaker has not adjusted it correctly.
6. FCS is STRONG: Some of my most profitable outcomes in ANY sport has been through betting the FCS College Football games. We have information on these small market games that just cannot be matched anywhere. Remember, FCS games are 3% plays and, as you will see, have some of the best closing line value of ANY sport we play.
NFL/NCAAF Betting Primer
Guidelines for NFL Football
1. Teasers are ok, if the number is right: I have been beating NFL teasers for decades but it gets harder and harder each year, as sportsbooks are changing the odds to their advantage. 6/6.5/7 point teasers are still available to bet, but the juice on them has been priced way too high at a lot of sportsbooks. Do NOT lay more than -120 on these teasers. At -130 these are unbeatable long term. Remember to never teaser through the 0, and always try to tease through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
2. Prop it up: The Player Prop market has expanded so much over the past 5-6 years! It use to be that we only got a huge list of props to get for the Super Bowl, but today you can get 40-50 options for each NFL game. Stay tuned in the the coaches and injury reports and you can pick off some nice +EV plays in the play prop market each week.
3. Live Betting- Only bet during commercials: Every book now has some sort of LIVE betting but you need to be very careful when playing this market. Do not overload yourself on one game by continuing to bet it LIVE. The biggest tip on betting LIVE is ONLY BET DURING COMMERCIALS! The broadcast you are watching is on a delay, sometimes up to 30-40 seconds. Sportsbooks have access to the up to second AM feed so they are ahead of what you are seeing. Please only bet during commercials to assure that you aren’t betting while the sportsbook is 1 or 2 plays ahead of you.
4. NFL Sides are tough: While I have seen that these are actually beatable now and I am playing them each week, make sure you are betting more % of your bankroll on props and totals. I suggest 1% on NFL sides and up to 2% on totals and props.
5. Always line shop: Football spreads, especially in the NFL are incredibly tight. A point or even a half point can make a huge difference over the course of a season. Don’t get lazy and just play the book in front of you or first on you phone apps. Make sure you have money loaded into multiple outs, and always find the best line for every single play.
I know all sports bettors are really excited for this time of year and ready to fire away, but if you want to improve your chances at profiting consistently then please follow these tips listed above.
Team KrackWins is on your side to help you beat the books! If you ever have any questions please email me at [email protected]. We delivered yet another winning football season last year and each year my edge is growing with more options at the books to pick off +EV plays. Pigskin season is officially here!!!
Let the grind continue…
