Baseball was the first sport I was ever introduced to. My father was a huge Yankees fan and some of my most precious memories from my youth were watching Yanks games together with him. Later on when I was living across the country we spend many of nights talking on the phone after a tough loss, or a trade we didn’t agree with. By now you all know that my allegiance lies with my bankroll. But before I knew how to bet on sports, I had a love for baseball as a kid growing up in New Jersey. Now while I still love the game as a purist, my called profession has shifted my focus towards how to be a winning baseball bettor.
Betting baseball successfully for a profit, is the very definition of a grind. As we all know, MLB has the longest season of any sport and winning over the course of 162 games requires a lot of patience and discipline. With the spread of legalized sports betting we’ve been able to add MLB Daily Player Props to our arsenal along with sides and totals. In the last 2 years I’ve have had my most profitable MLB seasons in recent memory! Of course, that doesn’t mean we don’t go through a lot of hot and cold streaks throughout the season, but that is all part of the grind. Here are a few tips to follow this MLB season that will help you stay on the profitable side.
MLB Betting Primer
1. Dime Line (10 cents): The most important tip I can give to any baseball bettor out there is to make sure you are using a book that offers a “dime line.” This means if the Yankees are playing the Red Sox and the line is even, it will be Yankees -105 and Red Sox -105. If the Yankees are a -130 favorite then the Red Sox will be +120. Having multiple outs in which to play is so important. Always line shop. Getting a few cents better odds on one play not seem like much, but over the full 162 game season, it really adds up. For the most part, I generally will not lay big favorites. It is very rare that I ever lay more than -180 on a single baseball game.
2. Heavy Favorites: Stay away from big favorites. Personally, I do not like to lay anything over -190 on an MLB side. While some other professional bettors will lay this price or more, I have found that long term this is a losing proposition.
3. Home Field Advantage: While I do believe home field advantage exists in college basketball, college football and in the NFL, I don’t give the same respect in MLB. While there may be a small advantage for the MLB home team, these days players are conditioned for travel. Also, being at home is almost always already baked into the line.
4. Getting the Total: Always line shop! I do bet lots of over/under totals throughout the season. The three of the biggest factors when considering a total bet are: 1) Starting pitcher matchup; 2) Weather; and 3) The plate umpire. In certain venues, like Wrigley Field and Yankee Stadium, the wind has a huge effect on the number. I have seen totals go from 8.5(-110) to 7 (-120) based on the projected wind at game time. Always remember the key numbers when betting MLB totals. I cannot stress enough how important 7 runs and 9 runs are when playing a total. I will choose to lay OVER 8.5 -125 before I take the OVER 9 -105 – i.e. it is worth laying extra the 20 cents to get the win over a push, based on the number of games that land 5-4 or 6-3. Again, line shop the best you can and always find the best number available.
5. First 5 Innings: Capitalize on the First 5 innings bet. If your handicap is based mostly on the starting pitchers, then the first 5 inning option is a good place to bet. Just like the first half in the NCAA Tournament, the First 5 line is a more true number and, for the most part, avoid the uncertainty that comes from the bullpen.
6. Prop it up: We have been attacking Pitcher Strikeout props the last couple years with great success. This is an even more pure number for our pitcher model outputs which has provided some big +EV plays.
Betting has always been a part of baseball. From the Eight Men Out and Shoeless Joe Jackson, to Charlie Hustle Pete Rose, to Ohtani and his interpreter: Baseball and Betting seem to just fit together. We will be working around the clock to find advantages each and every day. Our MLB volume will really start to pick up in the next couple of weeks as we collect more and more data. If you aren’t part of KrackWins Nation for the summer, now is time to join the team and get in on the action every day for the next six months. The Boys of Summer have arrived!!!
