Baseball was my first love in sports and to this day is my favorite sporting event to attend. Nothing compares to spending an afternoon in the stands watching the Boys of Summer play nine. Some of my best memories with my dad were watching Yankees games or talking to him about how he didn’t like A-Rod or why they traded Jay Buhner. While my father was a diehard Yankees fan and it gives me personal nostalgia, you know by now that my loyalty starts and ends with my bankroll.
Betting baseball, and doing it successfully, is the very definition of a grind.
You have to work through daily boards and not be swayed by the weekly game volume. Although there only were 60 regular season games, we were very profitable last year. In the shortened season, we finished 53-32-7 (+20.1 units / 58% win-rate) PLUS hit one of our two futures, Tampa Bay Rays to win the AL at +900 for a nice +13.5 unit profit kicker. We already have released NL and AL championship futures to our premium subscribers.
One thing that I constantly emphasize as critical: make sure that you use books offering a 10-cent line (also known as a “dime line”).
This means in an even matchup you are laying -105 on both sides. So, if the Yankees are a -109 favorite against the Red Sox, Boston would be -101 on the other side. Be mindful of this tip – otherwise you risk giving the book more edge.
Always make sure you check with your individual book on their ruling for Action/Listed. Action means your bet is good even if the starting pitcher is scratched. Listed means your bet is cancelled with a pitcher change.
Another tip on getting the right edge: 90%+ of my plays on sides are between +200 and -180. I very rarely lay more than -180 on a single baseball game. I do play some +1.5 runs with underdogs, but very rarely take a -1.5 runs favorite. Outside these parameters, the book has too great an edge.
What about home field advantage? Historically, I have never relied on it much – and definitely avoid it this year with some stadiums allowing reduced attendance.
I will bet MLB over/unders with the same unit size/bankroll percentage as sides during the 2021 season. The three biggest factors when considering a total bet are: 1) starting pitcher matchup 2) weather and 3) the plate umpire. In certain venues, like Wrigley Field and Yankee Stadium, the wind has a huge effect on the number. I have seen totals go from 8.5 (-110) to 7 (-120) based on the projected wind at game time.
Finally, remember the key numbers when betting MLB totals. I cannot stress how important 7 runs and 9 runs are when playing a total. I will choose to lay OVER 8.5 -125 before I take the OVER 9 -105 – i.e. it is worth laying extra the 20 cents to get the win over a push, based on the number of games that land 5-4 or 6-3. Line shopping is extremely important for totals, so always try to have as many outs as you possibly can and hunt for the best numbers.
Now you know some key professional insights. Using them and much more, our team works around the clock to find advantage plays. We are firing away on MLB right out of the gate, usually with multiple bets each day. As always, there will be some streaks of up and down throughout the season. Remember, never chase and always use the correct money management scale that you get as a Standard or Premium subscriber. Baseball is the biggest daily grind of any sport, but also provides high volume that allows my insider edge to have more statistical power. Just take the emotion out of it, follow my plays and scale precisely, and watch your bankroll grow with the spring blossoms.