The PGA announced its return to action, starting next week. The news may not garner the same enthusiasm from the masses as it would for one of the four major sports, but it brought a big smile to my face.
As KrackWins customers over the past two years know, golf wagering has been very good to my bankroll. Over the past 15 years, head to head golf matchups have been one of, if not the most, profitable wager I make. During the 2018-19 PGA season, KrackWins went 89-58 (+44.6 units). During 2019-20, we were on pace to best that record, going 35-14 (+30.5 units) when play halted in March due to the pandemic.
You will not find a better golf record anywhere. Period.
My golf handicap team is unmatched around the world in terms of course and player knowledge and insight. Let’s talk about what to look for.
When betting head to head matchups, always look for that ten cent line (-110), i.e. an even matchup. As you know, books have widened their margins over the years on every sport and golf is no different. The best you may find on matchups is -115 or even -120 at some places. Always remember to have as many outs as possible and shop for the best line. Though a nickel here or there on a play may not seem like a lot, in the long run, getting the best price will make a big difference to your bottom line for the year. Justin Rose -125 over Tiger Woods in a match up when it is -150 elsewhere doesn’t seem like much, but these are the margins we have to try to improve over the course of the long term grind.
The beauty of betting golf is that there are no teammates or coaching that needs to be taken into account.
Each player (and caddie) focuses on their own play as opposed to developing a strategy against a specific opponent. That means two things. First, the line you get is as true as you will find on the board. Second, it is critically important to be in tune with the player’s current mindset, health and play, especially as it relates to the upcoming course.
The type of course and expected weather conditions are key factors in analyzing what to play. We examine a player’s history at a particular course as well as how they have fared at courses with similar layouts in the past. Like baseball teams, we find that golfers can be very streaky, so we focus our analysis on players that have been falling off/honed-in during the previous few events. Each week my team creates players ratings that, depending on the opening line, are either a “play for” or a “play against”. We then look for possible matchups where a “play for” is matched up versus a “play against”. These are my strongest matchups.
My edge in golf comes information, information, information.
Thirty years in the industry have provided me with some fantastic connections in the golfing world. These relationships and the trust we have in each other did not happen overnight and cannot be bought. My confidence in this edge is manifested in the fact that I play golf matchups at 1.75% of my bankroll. As Krackwins bettors can attest, we regularly get 10-25 cents of closing line value on every golf match up. This means that the odds you get on a matchup when our plays come out on Monday or Tuesday are 10-25 cents better than those available before the tournament kicks off on Thursdays. That line value along with our strong historical win percentage means you should be betting golf religiously with us.
For professional bettors, this stretch without sports has been quite challenging. Sadly, I have seen far too many people forcing action with Korean Baseball or Ping Pong, just to make a play. Not me and not KrackWins. You know by now, without any shadow of a doubt, I only make plays and recommend plays where I know that I have an advantage. And while I am as hungry as anyone for the return of all sports, I am betting on golf with extra gusto because it is one of my very best wagers – not simply because it happens to be back on the board. Let’s start the return of sports off right and put some cash in our pockets this summer on the links.