People mistakenly think the Super Bowl is the biggest betting event of the year. The volume during March Madness supersedes any other sports betting event in Las Vegas. Like the Super Bowl, the big dance brings out some new first time bettors. There will be plenty of opportunities for lots of good positive expectancy wagers, so don’t put all your eggs in one basket. I myself will place a dozen bets or more during this first round.
Historically, I have done extremely well in the first round of the dance. One reason is that I like placing first half wagers on a few of the dogs and I will tell you why.
The first half is a pure number, because there is no garbage fouls being committed like there is at the end of the game. I cannot tell you how many times I have lost, that I was winning for most of the game only to lose due to fouls at the end. Another reason is the depth of the stronger teams.
For example, last years opening round Kansas played Penn. I knew by betting the first half I would get a fresh motivated Penn team that was happy to be in the big dance. All the starters are in against the Kansas starters in the first half. However, it was possible they tire out in the second half. Then when they did, their back-ups/second team would be playing the Kansas backups/second team. Well, the Kansas second-team (for the most part) were better than Bucknell starters. So that is what I mean by the depth of the teams.
Also, how many people were betting Buffalo (against Arizona) in the first half? I would think not many except for me. Did you know anyone that came to town to bet Buffalo? I didn’t think so. However, this is not to say that I blindly bet every dog. Some of the giant dogs playing the marquee teams automatically get bet. So that’s also where I find the value like I did last year on Duke laying the points in the first round.
As we get into the Sweet Sixteen and the elite eight expect to be making less wagers. Lines get tougher as the tournament goes on. So I like to only wager on high percentage plays.
Just remember, bet with your head not over it, and do not get caught in all the hype and the craziness of March Madness. Drinking and partying will lead to bad decision making and not just with the betting of sports. This is a time of year to have fun, yes; however, your primary goal should be to make money.
