If it feels like the NBA just crowned its champion when the Lakers popped the champagne, well…that’s because it was. After the most unusual year in league history, the Lakers disposed of the Heat in the Orlando Bubble a mere two months ago.
With the shortest offseason ever, the NBA is back in action this week, kicking off its shortened 72 game season. As longer-term KrackWins members know, the NBA, and specifically NBA totals, have been very good to us. We went 255-183 (58%) for the 2018-19 season and 161-114 (+56.7 units / 58.5%) last year. The 2019-20 result is particularly strong, given all of the uncertainty with the Bubble after the restart. I expect to do even better this year, assuming there are no unplanned stoppages.
The teams return to their home courts this year, albeit with no fans – at least to start. Each NBA team will follow their state guidelines on allowed capacity. By early 2021, most teams expect to allow some fans in the building, but likely not enough to significantly impact the home court advantage.
NBA Sports Betting Tips
No sports league has grown in popularity more than the NBA over the last decade. More and more people are betting on the NBA each night. Be wary of those who pretend to be “NBA experts.” There are plenty of sports betting tips services out there that tout their football prowess. After they’ve cost you money, they will tell you, oh yeah, by the way we also do NBA. Not KrackWins. Basketball is a staple of building my bankroll every year. The NBA was one of the first sports I bet professionally when I first moved to Las Vegas nearly twenty years ago. At that time, the number of NBA bettors you’d find in sports books on a nightly basis was small. While that number has increased significantly, I find plenty of lucrative edge over the course of the season.
I play a handful of sides, but totals make up the majority of my advantage plays and I usually have action on multiple games a night. Most games are on Wednesday, Friday and on the weekend. My team and their models have served me quite well over the years with unrivaled long-term performance. I also bet a few NBA future win totals before the season, which are being released to my premium subscribers this week.
The average game total has gone up over 10% since 2014-2015 and I see that trend continuing this year. If we learned anything from the Bubble, it’s that the lack of fans and in-arena distractions causes the games to have a bit more of an up and down summer league feel, at least at the beginning of the season. The combination of the adjusted style of play along with rule changes (such as the 14 second offensive rebound shot clock) will again have handicappers and line-makers alike revising their models and formulas.
Here are three more sports betting tips to keep in mind:
Bankroll Management is Crucial
Staying disciplined always is important, but even more so in the NBA where 30 teams playing an 72-game schedule = 1080 games a year. With a lot of action to be had each night, you will want to have a good plan for what your overall bankroll is and what your standard bet will be. The good news for all KrackWins standard and premium subscribers is that you have access to my bankroll management guide. This informs you on how many bankroll units you should wager.
Stay Informed on Player Injury and Rest Updates
This takes on added significance this year for two reasons. First, a number of top players will be sitting out games over the season’s first month as they get their bodies in shape following the short offseason. Second, the Covid factor will lead to unexpected lineup changes quite often. Rest and load management announcements often won’t be made until very close to game time. We always stay apprised of injuries and scheduling that could lead to rest of key players. Let us do the work for you.
Home Court, or Lack Thereof
More than the other major sports, NBA lines traditionally are influenced by two factors: home court advantage and a team’s previous games. This year, home court advantage takes on a whole new meaning as fans will be absent, at least to start. I often find great value when good teams hit the road as slight road favorites. I expect that to be even more true in the early part of this season before the books adjust.
The beauty of the NBA is that there are 30 teams, playing 72 games this season. That means you get a lot of information on teams that can be applied to a lot of sports betting action over the season. How certain teams play and defend against other teams becomes a factor, as teams will face each other multiple times. These are advantages you just don’t get in football. The insider advantage in my totals run from game 1 to game 72. It is very important to follow my bankroll management scale, as we will have action almost every single day. Stay disciplined and remember that it is a marathon not a sprint. Keep that in mind and we will help you win betting the NBA this season.