There is little question that College Football has come to fully embrace the dark side. With no penalty transfers, NIL deals and constant realignment, big time collegiate ball is already a professionals game. Next year we will see Texas and Oklahoma in the SEC, while USC and UCLA enter the Big Ten and I have to say, it will take some getting used to. While it will ultimately lead to more big game matchups and more action on the board, I hope it doesn’t completely ruin the tradition and pageantry that has always made College Football Saturdays so special.
That said, even more than the team spirit and the marching bands, the thing I love most about college football is…the volume. While the NFL offers 14-16 games a week, College Football provides over 100 games from which to select my bets each weekend. There is no way the bookmakers can be right with their numbers on that many games. Additionally, there is simply not as much information out there to grab about these college kids as there is for the professionals of the NFL. College players don’t speak to the media 3-4 times throughout a week like the pros do and injuries and rotations are kept like nuclear secrets by Nick Saban and his ilk.
This information asymmetry (combined with over-extended line-makers) provides lucrative opportunities for the KrackWins Team. There are advantages to be found across the board, especially in the first half of the season – which is why College Football has traditionally been very profitable for me over the years.
NCAA Football Primer
Guidelines I rely on when betting on NCAA Football
- NEVER TEASE: Do not ever tease College Football games, especially totals. Teasers are only +EV on NFL sides when the juice is right. Don’t get lured into teasing NCAAF games or you will quickly realize why such bets got their name.
- KEY NUMBERS – NOT AS KEY AS THE NFL: The key numbers we rely on in the NFL are not as strong in College Football. The NFL has some very strong key numbers (3s, 7s, etc.) that even the most seasoned professional sports bettors will buy into. The key numbers in College Football are not close to being as strong as those in the NFL, so I generally stay away from buying when betting NCAAF.
- DON’T OVERVALUE THE IMPACT OF WEATHER: Most bettors have the common misconception that a rainy day leads to a more likely under total. This is not the case. First of all, always remember that present weather conditions are already built into the totals. Sometimes a weather forecast changes mid-week, but that should not drive you to bet the under if rain is on the way. Wind and field condition knowledge can often provide advantages, but as always, it depends on the number you are getting.
- CORRELATED PARLAYS DO EXIST: While I have said many times that I don’t generally bet parlays, same game College Football parlays do occasionally hold advantages. Over/Favorite and Under/Underdog correlations can create advantages if the numbers are right. The problem is that most sports books are keen to it and simply don’t take these bets. That said, when they do and I find one I like, I strike.
- HOME FIELD MEANS MORE: Having the Home Field is much more important in college sports than it is in the pros. Though this advantage is still usually baked into the line, there are special circumstances where the bookmaker has not adjusted it correctly.
- FCS is STRONG: Some of my most profitable outcomes in ANY sport has been through betting the FCS College Football games. We have information on these small market games that just cannot be matched anywhere. Remember, FCS games are 3% plays and, as you will see, have some of the best closing line value of ANY sport we play.
Let’s Beat the Book this NCAAF Season
There is no doubt that the NFL is 24/7/365 monster that fills up the sports talk world even AFTER the Super Bowl Champion is crowned. From Free Agency to the Draft to Training Camp, the NFL machine really has no offseason. In fact, it is so omnipresent that it is easy to overlook the fact that there is another football product that can be even more profitable for bettors that join KrackWins than the NFL – College Football. It has traditionally been one of my strongest sports on the board, so jump on board now and let’s beat the book together this NCAAF season!