The volume of wagering during March Madness supersedes any other sports betting event. There are a lot of narratives this year, but just because a team has a good story doesn’t mean they are a good bet. Yes, its Coach K’s last year, but does that mean Duke is destined to make a deep run? Or will they fold under that added pressure? Gonzaga was ranked #1 to start and to end the season – will they be able to complete the unfinished business of two recent Championship Game losses? With no truly dominant team out there, there are literally a dozen teams that I could see cutting down the nets.
Betting The Underdogs
There will be plenty of opportunities for positive expectancy wagers, so don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Historically, I have done extremely well in the first two rounds of the dance. I particularly like placing first half wagers on underdogs, for three reasons:
1) The first half is more of a pure number, because there aren’t garbage end of game fouls being committed like there are at the end of the game. I cannot tell you how many times I have lost college games that I was winning all game, due to fouls in the last 30 seconds by a team whose season is ending.
2) The marquee teams (Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga) are public favorites to bet, so there is already some value on the dogs they are facing.
3) Many of the smaller schools with the high seeds are so pumped to be there that the come out of the locker room on fire. This is the game they will tell their grandkids about. That adrenaline may carry them through the first 10 plus minutes. Usually, in the second half you will see the talent and depth of the stronger teams start to take over and wear down the lower seeds over the course of 40 minutes.
Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight Betting Strategies
As we get into the Sweet Sixteen and the Elite Eight, expect to be making less wagers. Lines get tougher as the tournament goes on. I like to only wager on high percentage plays. Just remember: bet with your head not over it and don’t get caught in all the hype and the craziness of March Madness.
There are four channels showing all the games, day and night. Games start at 9:00 a.m. Pacific and go until 9:00 p.m. As always, don’t bet a game just because it is in front of you on TV or next on the card. I promise you, your bankroll will be empty by the Sweet Sixteen.