As much as I love baseball and fondly remember it as the sport I grew up on, in today’s sporting world, baseball’s moniker of “America’s Pastime” is just that – a past time. There is no doubt about it, the NFL is King. It has become a 24/7/365 monster that fills up the sports world even after the confetti falls on the Super Bowl Champion. From Free Agency to the Draft to Training Camp, the NFL machine has no offseason and dominates our country’s sporting conscious. Five years ago, the NFL commissioner said the league would not embrace sports betting. Now, we see stadiums sponsored by sportsbooks and in-game commercials filed with sports gambling related ads.
The Public’s Favorite Sport to Bet
We all know that by a wide margin, the NFL is the public’s favorite sport to bet…but what is not so well known, is that it’s also the toughest to beat. Tight lines and traps lure the public towards danger each week. Though I have consistently won on the NFL over the past 25 years with my one of a kind, advantage-driven method, last year was one of my most profitable NFL season ever as KrackWins plays finished the regular season going 139-73-6. That’s a win rate of 65% which lead to a +83.6 unit profit! It’s time to run it back for the 2022-23 Season.
Here are some tips for surviving (and thriving) in the NFL this year:
- Line shop. Football spreads, especially the NFL are incredibly tight. A point or even a half point can make a huge difference over the course of a season. If possible, always search multiple sources for the best number out there and if your book has a bad number, DO NOT BET THE GAME.
- Look for key numbers in NFL games. Because NFL teams most often score in multiples of 3 or 7, getting off or on these key numbers can have a significant effect on your winning percentage for the year. Roughly 42 percent of all NFL games end up with final score reflecting one of these five margins (3, 4, 6, 7, 10).
- Be able to separate entertainment and money. Historically, the most heavily wagered games are not the most profitable. In fact, just the opposite is true. Resist the temptation to bet on the standalone games: Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night – simply because they are the only game on TV and you plan on watching it. More money has been lost on these games than all other games combined. When considering the game, think about it as if it was one of another dozen games on Sunday. If there’s an edge, play it; otherwise, relish in the fact that you can enjoy these games without losing money on it as those around you do.
- Always keep your discipline. As I have preached over and over for years, the golden rule of gambling in general is to manage your bankroll and only wager what you can afford to lose. This is true in all sports, but especially in the NFL where the set schedule of kickoff times always leads to chasing. Sports books make their yearly nut on people chasing their losses on the, “I need to win this so I can avoid a losing week.” Don’t be a sucker. Chasing has ruined more lives than I care to remember.
- Be selective. I make good money every year teasing NFL sides. I am very selective however and look for teases that can take me through the key numbers of 3,4, 7 and 10. Three team teasers paying plus 170 are smart bets, though their availability is fewer and farther between as the books have slowly caught on. Check your teaser odds and rules. You should not pay more than -120 on a two team 6 point teaser. Add 10 cents for every half point. Team 6 point teasers should pay no less than +170. Always review the book’s rules on ties. Most people don’t know that at most books a tie on a 2 team teaser is a push no matter what the 2nd leg does.
- Search the board. While I have never played fantasy football, the rise of the industry has put good money in my pocket over the last decade through the increased availability of player proposition bets. The ridiculous amount of data put out for fantasy heads has fueled a ton of new player prop options in most books. In all, there are literally hundreds of player props to look at in the NFL each week. If you don’t like any side in a game, don’t force it. Try picking out a prop that catches your eye with value.
- Finally, have fun. You work hard to have enough disposable income to bet on the weekends. Don’t waste it. If winning as a sports gambler was easy, everyone would quit their jobs and do it. It’s hard to win. The most important thing to remember is that you should be betting to make the games and the time you spend watching them more enjoyable, not to make this month’s rent. As much as I want you to win, I don’t want you to lose even more. Always keep perspective and manage your bankroll.
If you want to improve your chances at profiting consistently, then heed my pointers above and get the KrackWins team in your corner to guide you. We delivered an excellent winning NFL season last year with even more betting options, my edge is actually growing! Pigskin season is in full bloom. Let’s do this thing!