You’ve been patiently waiting for months. Since the confetti fell onto Tom Brady for the umpteenth time last February, you have been waiting for this day to come…and now, when the Bears and Packers kickoff tonight, it is finally here – the NFL season. Baseball’s moniker of “America’s Pastime” is just that – past time, as the NFL has dominated our country’s sporting consciousness for years. With the Supreme Court ruling last year opening the door for the states to legalize sports gambling, you can expect the NFL’s popularity to grow even more.
Now, we all know that by a wide margin, the NFL is the public’s favorite sport to bet. But, what most people don’t know, is that it’s also the toughest to beat. Tight lines and traps lure the public towards danger each week. I have consistently won on the NFL over the past 25 years by doing it my way: focusing on NFL totals, teasers, individual player props, and future bets throughout the year. A few words to the wise for surviving (and thriving) in the NFL this year.
1. Always be able to separate entertainment vs. money. Historically, the most heavily-wagered games are not the most profitable. In fact, just the opposite is true. Resist the temptation to bet on the standalone games – Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night – simply because they are the only game on TV and you plan on watching it. More money has been lost on these games than all other games combined. When considering the game, think about it as if it was one of another dozen games on Sunday. If there’s an edge, play it; otherwise, relish in the fact that you can enjoy these games without losing money on it as those around you do.
2. Always line shop. Football spreads, especially the NFL, are incredibly tight. A point or even a half point can make a huge difference over the course of a season. If possible, always search multiple sources for the best number out there and if your book has a bad number, DO NOT BET THE GAME.
3. Always look for key numbers in NFL games. Because NFL teams most often score in multiples of 3 or 7, getting off or on these key numbers can have a significant effect on your winning percentage for the year. Roughly 42 percent of all NFL games end up with final score reflecting one of these five margins (3, 4, 6, 7, 10).
4. Always keep your discipline. As I have preached over and over for years, the golden rule of gambling in general is to manage your bankroll and only wager what you can afford to lose. This is true in all sports, but especially in the NFL, where the set schedule of kickoff times always leads to chasing. Sportsbooks make their yearly nut on people chasing their losses on the “I need to win this so I can avoid a losing week”. Don’t be a sucker. Chasing has ruined more lives than I care to remember.
5. In general, most sharps will tell you to avoid betting teasers. While I generally agree with that, there is one exception. I make good money every year teasing NFL sides (not totals). I am very selective and look for teases that can take me through the key numbers of 3,4, 7 and 10. Three team teasers paying plus 170 are smart bets, though their availability is fewer and farther between as the books have slowly caught on. Get them while you can.
6. While I have never played fantasy football, the rise of the industry has put money in my pocket over the last decade through betting player props. Tons and tons of data circulating for fantasy heads has led to a plethora of player prop options in most books, especially for prime time games.
Finally, have fun. You work hard to have enough disposable income to bet on the weekends. Don’t waste it. If winning as a sports gambler was easy, everyone would quit their jobs and do it. It’s hard to win. You certainly will improve your chances at profiting with the KrackWins team in your corner. The most important thing to remember is that you should be betting to make the games and the time you spend watching them with friends and family more enjoyable — not to make this month’s rent. As much as I want you to win, I don’t want you to lose even more. Always keep perspective and manage your bankroll.
With that said, I want to wish you the best of luck and thank you for being an early adopter of this cutting-edge mobile app. I really appreciate you. Pigskin is in full bloom. Let’s do this thing!