March Madness is finally officially here!!! The brackets were released last night, and 68 teams have their dream of cutting down the nets still alive. The betting volume for the NCAA Basketball Tournament supersedes any other sports betting event, including the Super Bowl! It’s been a crazy NCAABB regular season, with SEVEN teams getting votes at #1 throughout the season. Duke and Michigan sit on top of the board now as the two big favorites to win it all, but there are 10-15 teams that have a legit shot to be crowned. Sports bettors are eager to start betting away, but don’t lose your entire bankroll the first day, stay the course it’s all long tournament.
Here are a few tips on betting March Madness that I like to give out each year
Sports Betting Picks Weekly Recap
TIP NO. 1) FIRST HALF VALUE: The first half line offers more of a pure number than the game for a few reasons. First and foremost because the first half does not end with garbage desperate fouls being committed by losing teams trying to extend the game. I cannot tell you how many times I have lost tournament games that were winners for 39 minutes until fouling to the death by seniors playing their last game took my bet from a winner to a loser.
Staying with the first half theme, I like to bet the lower seeds (13-16) in the first round as these smaller-school kids, playing the biggest game of their lives, come out with a lot of emotion and in many cases, stick around longer than they should. While that adrenaline may carry them through the first 10-15 minutes, the talent and depth of the stronger teams usually take over in the second half. I like to target some of these big underdogs in the first half.
TIP NO. 2) BIG NAMES = BIG ACTION: A lot of folks only really pay attention to college basketball in March. The big-name schools (UConn, Duke, Florida) are public favorites to bet, so there is already some value on the underdog schools’ people may not be as familiar with. During the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 these big-name favorites are bet down by the public enough that books are forced to move in favor of the dog.
TIP NO. 3) PROP ME UP: With more and more legal sportsbooks entering the proposition market, there are more bets than ever. This year’s player and team prop market for the NCAA Basketball Tournament will have the most options we’ve ever seen. There is no way the bookmaker can accurately set lines for these many options. Check out individual game player props across the board and look for +EV plays early before the books adjust.
TIP NO. 4) PROTECT YOUR BANKROLL: As we get into the second weekend, you should be reducing your wager volume. The lines get tighter as the tournament goes on. I like to only wager on high percentage plays. There are games on all day for the first two weeks, and they are all on TV. As always, don’t bet a game just because it is next on the card. Bet with your head and not over it. March Madness is the most fun three weeks of the sports calendar. Cinderella’s, Buzzer Beaters, and cashing tickets all the way to that last One Shining Moment.
TIP No. 5) Dogs Early, Chalk Late: While you should be eyeing the underdogs in the first two rounds of the Big Dance, the cream usually rises to the top during the later rounds. Look for a few 11/12seeds to advance into the second week, but by time we hit the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 the clock usually strikes Midnight for these Cinderella runs.
The last month at KrackWins has been a bit of a whirlwind. It’s been a real rollercoaster as we’ve had some big swings both ways. College Basketball had our first losing month of the season, as we went 42-53 (-18.4 units). NBA grinded out a nice profit, going 29-22 for a +9.4 unit profit. PGA Season is in full “swing” and we started out 2-2 on our matchups and missed out Top 10 play (-2.1 units). Overall, the last month we went 73-77, dropping 10.8 units. For my long-term subscribers, you already understand that we do have losing month. To my newer subscribers, yes, we lost last month, but this was our only our second losing month in the past year! Remember this is a long term marathon, and not a sprint! March Madness is traditionally one of my most profitable times of the year, and we are firing away already!!! Let’s have a great tournament, the grind continues….
