June is one of the best months of the year in the sporting world, especially for sports betting picks. The NBA Finals is here, the Stanley Cup Playoffs is down to the Final Four, MLB is in full swing and the U.S. Open Golf Tournament is around the corner.
Advice on Hedging a Future Bet
One of the strategy questions I receive most is about hedging a future bet. A perfect example happened last week as KrackWins subscribers were holding a “Miami Heat to win the Eastern Conference” ticket with odds ranging from 15-1 to 11-1. When the Heat forced a Game 7, everyone had the same question, “Should I hedge back and bet on the Boston money line to win Game 7?” Truly, the answer to the question “To Hedge or Not to Hedge?” is one that each individual holding the ticket has to answer for themselves – i.e. what do you personally want to lock up in this situation?
Personally, I rarely hedge as the hedge back is more often than not a -EV (negative expected value) wager. As a professional bettor, if I am holding a large future, I won’t simply hedge just to hedge. I want ALL of my wagers to be +EV. In our recent NBA example, I would scan all of my books looking for a +EV number on Boston to win Game 7 in hopes of finding a number at -125 or less. At any rate, I would never suggest more than a 25% hedge, as anything more would be giving back the value you have held on the future.
Sports Betting Picks Weekly Recap
An up and down week left us at an unsatisfying 13-12 (+.3 units). Our NBA props and totals finished 2-3 (-.7 units). Some late wrecks led to a wild NASCAR finish as we went 2-1 (+1.2 units). PGA’s only matchup went 0-1 (-1.6 units) as Jordan Spieth couldn’t catch World #1 Scottie Scheffler on Sunday afternoon. MLB continued to grind, going 7-6 last week (+.3 units). WNBA continued to stay +EV, finishing 2-1 (+1.3 units).
As our long term members know, the turn to June also means one other addition to the board that we are excited about – College Baseball Regionals. Last season we won 12 units on this event, following up a 15 unit profit the year before. Let’s hope for similar success this year as we keep grinding our way through a successful summer.
