I hope that all of you had a relaxing and enjoyable Labor Day. As the peak of summer dog-days officially ended, sports delivered a booming thunderstorm of high-drama NBA playoff games, the FedEx Championship finale, full-tilt baseball action, and the first weekend of NCAAF. Below is my sports betting picks recap for the week of 9-10-20.
NBA Playoffs Recap
In the bubble, a dominant Milwaukee team with strong championship prospects washed out. Undoubtedly, the Giannis ankle injury sealed their fate. However, the real storyline carries much more intrigue. The Bucks never seemed right in the bubble, which continues to shake things up. Lack of home court, roster decisions dating back to the offseason (eg. letting Malcolm Brogdon walk while re-upping shaky playoff performer Eric Bledsoe, role player/depth additions that did not pan out well), and the inflexible style of coach Mike Budenholzer all played a part in a surprise exit for the odds-on favorite from the East and from the both conferences to win it all a month ago. They also ran into a deep, highly talented Heat team that never fully got the respect it deserved.
The Heat will be a formidable challenge for the Boston-Toronto series winner. That series has been another drama-filled match-up as the absence of home-court continues wreaking its mischief. As I write, the Raptors just pulled out an insane 2OT win to set up Game 7. Out West, the Houston-OKC thriller went to the wire and now the Lakers and Rockets engage in a high-octane slugfest up and down the court. The Clippers and Nuggets also round out the action in another fun series.
The PGA Tour concluded with an impressive Dustin Johnson FedEx win. Hats off to the PGA for its very successful execution amid the pandemic. They stayed the course early when a few cases surfaced and never looked back. We still get to enjoy the upcoming US Open in two weeks, followed by the Masters in November. We will be firing at them, plus the smaller tournaments in between.
College Football Recap
College football is back and will move into high gear this weekend with power conference play by the ACC, SEC, and Big 12. We traditionally do well in the early stretch of NCAAF. Finally, the NFL kicks-off with Week 1 and some plays already have been released. We will be posting our NFL primer shortly and paying extra attention to late-week scratches this year.
Unfortunately, the storm of action dumped rain on us this past week with one of our worst performances in 2020.
KrackWins Sports Betting Picks Recap
We have many new subscribers, so I want to emphasize what our long-term customers know: it happens and is part of playing (and winning) the long game.
I have written articles and recap commentary before on the topic of variance that you can read on my sports betting app and website. It is perfectly normal and expected to have some rough swings. That is why money management, betting discipline, and an even-keel mentality are the hallmarks of a successful professional.
That is why money management, betting discipline, and an even-keel mentality are the hallmarks of a successful professional.
In our 8-18-20 recap, I noted during our hot streak that patience is critical and some reversion to the mean could be on the horizon. Sadly, I have seen people not exercise discipline during a downswing and chase by abandoning their money management. Or worse, give up before the pendulum swings back. Do not fall prey to either temptation.
NCAAF went 1-2 (-3.1 units), NBA 0-3 (-5.25 units), WNBA 3-3 (-.4 units), Golf 0-1 (-2.4 units), MLB 3-5 (-1.9 units). That unsatisfactory result was cushioned by cashing one of our NBA Futures, Ja Morant Rookie of the Year (+8.5 units) for a total week of 8-14 (-4.55 units). Overall, we still are winning at a good rate, going 82-63-2 (56%) since baseball restarted on July 23.
We are rounding the corner into a full throttle fall, so keep your heads up and stayed disciplined. Our NFL action this season will be dialed up from previous year. The early season odds-making will produce great opportunities across both college and professional pigskin. So, let’s welcome the coming of fall knowing that summer showers always pass.