NFL Championship weekend is here! We are down to the final 4 teams and I think there is no arguing that these are the best 4 teams in the NFL this season. The Kansas Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are back where they’ve been the past few seasons but the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens hope to mix things up for the Super Bowl this year. Las Vegas will be wild with hundreds of thousands flocking in to catch the game or just be a part of this crazy atmosphere. I am hoping for a fun but safe two weeks here in Vegas!
Last week was a bit of a struggle, as we finished 13-18 (-8.6 units). NBA won yet again going 5-4 for a .4 unit profit but NCAABB and NFL props fell short. NCAA Hoops had some awful beats going 6-9 (-5.2u). NFL finished the weekend going 2-5 (-3.4u) in the NFL, but our Chiefs play came in over the Bills and our big Ravens AFC future is still alive. I will send out some hedging advice before the game but remember when it comes to hedging, it’s very dependent on the person and there risk/benefit.
Here are a few NFL Betting tips to take into the weekend and use next season!
Always line shop. Football spreads, especially the NFL, are incredibly tight. A point or even a half point can make a huge difference over the course of a season. If possible, always search multiple sources for the best number out there and if your book has a bad number, DO NOT BET THE GAME.
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Always look for key numbers in NFL games. Because NFL teams most often score in multiples of 3 or 7, getting off or on these key numbers can have a significant effect on your winning percentage for the year. Roughly 42 percent of all NFL games end up with the final score reflecting one of these five margins (3, 4, 6, 7, 10).
Always keep your discipline. As I have preached over and over for years, the golden rule of betting in general is to manage your bankroll and only wager what you can afford to lose. This is true in all sports, but especially in the NFL where the set schedule of kickoff times always leads to chasing. Sports books make their yearly nut on people chasing their losses on the “I need to win this bet so I can avoid a losing week”. Don’t be a sucker. Chasing has ruined more lives than I care to remember.
In general, most sharps will tell you to avoid betting teasers. While I generally agree with that, there is one exception. I make good money every year teasing NFL sides (not totals). I am very selective though and look for teases that can take me through the key numbers of 3, 4, 7, and 10. Three team teasers paying +170 or better can be smart bets, though their availability is fewer and farther between as the books have slowly caught on. Get them while you can.
Do not overlook player props. While I have never played fantasy football, the rise of the industry itself has put good money in my pocket over the last decade through betting player props. The tons and tons of data out there for fantasy heads has fueled a plethora of player prop options in most books, especially for prime-time games. With the good analysis and information, there are multiple advantage plays every week.
Finally, have fun. You work hard to have enough disposable income to bet on the weekends. Don’t waste it. If winning consistently as a sports bettor was easy, everyone would quit their jobs and do it. It’s hard to win, especially with the NFL. The most important thing to remember is that you should be betting for enjoyment, not to make this month’s rent. Always keep perspective and manage your bankroll.
Let’s have a great weekend and ejoy the games Krackwins Nation!