This past All-Star weekend, I found myself thinking back to this time last year. Coming off the final filming session for Showtime’s Action series, the brief reduction in handicapping activity with the NBA break normally would be welcome (aka. 12 versus 16-hour days). But I was busy beyond just the CBB, NHL, and PGA numbers: I had a mobile app launch coming up and the “beta” version just dropped from our developers.
My team had been working feverishly for months. Until then, the cutting-edge app that tens of thousands of KW nation members use today largely had been a bunch of visual mock-ups. Now, there was a functioning app that would launch in 6 weeks. I think the process for me was like a long wait for the baby to arrive and finally seeing its live motion and distinctive features on an ultrasound (and, FYI it did take a full 9 months).
My vision was simple and remains so today: provide the very best information available real-time and sharpen our users with proven, practical insights for winning long-term. I hate seeing regular bettors taken advantage of by the books or scammed by “expert” advice from those without a bankroll at risk backing up their picks (or worse). Only the select win over time, but it is absolutely achievable with the right handicapping and professional practices. I want to bring bettors along with me on that path. The cutting-edge KrackWins app is the delivery vehicle.
I wake up each day and focus on this vision, never allowing short-term fluctuations to distract me. This past week was another tough one with more highlight-reel CBB bad beats as well as some other misses. I am sure many of you were pained as Maryland kept missing the front-end of late 2H 1-for-1’s resulting in a 1.5pt shortfall of the over, as Marquette hit their last 5 three-pointers in a row after being down double-digits to cheat Villanova’s cover by 1 point, as Georgia Southern choked away a late game lead, or as FIU/Southern Miss missed serial down-the-stretch shots to fall 1.5pts short of the total. In fact, as I write this article, Illinois-Penn State just iced the ending of the game to land at 138 against our over 139.5 play with 4 points of closing line value (143.5). That’s a frustrating bunch of hits, but it is normal variance and not cause for concern. It is like regular turbulence for an experienced pilot. You keep flying your plan and maintain your heading.
Allow me to elaborate in more tangible terms. If you joined us when our app launched at the beginning of April 2019, you are up well into the triple figure units. More recently, here is our performance (assuming you are applying our bankroll management consistently):
Sept: +34.7 units
Oct: +37.9 units
Nov: +50.7 units
Dec: +3.5 units
Jan: +42 units (+9 w/o NFL future)
Feb (2/17): -12.8 units
During this ~6-month timeframe, we have had 16 winning, 2 roughly break-even, and 7 losing weeks out of 25 total, including a streak of eleven winning weeks in a row from mid-September to early December.
If you joined us at the beginning of September 2019, you are up 114 units (+147 if you had 49ers future from late August). If you joined at the beginning of November, you are up over 50 units. Those results are unrivaled in the industry. Period.
If you joined in the last 60 days, I want you to pay extra attention. You may have boarded the plane during some post-take off bumps, but the flight plan and destination remain the same: a growing bankroll over time. You are being challenged to adopt the professional’s mindset out of the gate: remove emotion, maintain bankroll and line-shopping discipline, and be long-term focused. Last year, we had NBA swings with -10 units one week and +15 units the next on the way to a 255-183 season (+89.5 units) and a MLB season that wound up solidly profitable after a horrific 3-week stretch in May that our longer-term customers remember. It simply is part of betting.
None of this commentary is to say that I am satisfied with CBB’s .500 performance so far. My bankroll is taking the exact same Ls – and I always feel more bothered by the impact to my customers. That said, I am not the slightest bit unnerved and am completely confident because for 27 years I have won consistently and have seen negative swings far greater.
Last year, we delivered +44 units on PGA and +41.5 units on CBB. We traditionally do the best at CBB during March, NBA is running at 63% and PGA nears the peak season at 60%. So, CBB is off but still can easily recover to above 52% for a profit, while NBA and golf look great. MLB is reporting for Spring Training and we started out last season hot 38-21 (+17.9 units). Finally, we have been internally piloting XFL plays, which tested out strong enough (5-1) to release our first play. There will likely be more. That’s the overall look-ahead to focus on.
Weekly stats: CBB 7-12 (-12.5 units), NBA 1-3 (-3.45 units), NHL 0-2 (-2.75 units), XFL 0-1 (-1.1 units), and Golf 4-0 (+7 units). Overall, 12-18 (-12.8 units).
My final comment: our last losing month was May 2019 and essentially was break-even (-.6 units). We had customers who quit during the tough weeks, only to miss out on all of the comeback in late May, plus the string of bankroll building winners in the following months. February still can get back to black…and even if it does not, you definitely want to be around when the variance starts to shift. Stay steady. Do not miss out on the bankroll gains that inevitably are coming. That’s what long-term success is all about.