Weekly Recap, Bad Beats, and Looking Ahead – 12/11

Dec 11, 2019 | NBA, NFL, Sports Betting Picks Weekly Recap

Even though we knew it had to happen sooner or later, I do not like to report that we suffered our first losing week since the last week of September.  We had an icy few days.  Everyone hates losing and remember that I am wagering $1,000s on each of our plays alongside you.  However, let me use this as a “teaching moment”, since many of you have joined us since our coldest streak of the year in May, when we had 3 painful losing weeks in a row.

I wrote an article back then that still is posted under Krackology, called “Luck, Good and Bad, Comes with Sports Betting Territory”.  I will excerpt some here, but you should read it, if you have not, or were not with us back then.

Excerpt:

I received an email two nights ago that said: “I hope you were in a padded and guarded room this weekend because some force was out to get you.”

“Between the recent string of 8th or 9th inning bad beats in baseball, to golfers (Joel) Dahmen and (Tommy) Fleetwood blowing up on the golf course Sunday, and, of course, the double OT loss on the under on the Bucks game Sunday.”

I thanked him for the email and while I do appreciate his acknowledgment of the recent string of events, things like that will happen. The ”luck factor” will even out over the long term, and for sure, will help us down the line equally as much as it has hurt us this past weekend.

I will not bore you with Kelly Criterion or Monte Carlo simulations, which I have written on before. However, I would like to touch on standard deviation, which will happen throughout any long season of wagers.

Going into the NBA playoffs, my record was 255-186 for a 58 percent season. During this season, there were weeks where I was down 10 units for the week, only to rebound the following week, and end up winning 15 units.

I only bet NBA totals because they are beatable. And as far as I am concerned, NBA sides are just as tough to beat as the NFL sides. The last two nights’ overtime games are an example of that.

In the 2018-19 college basketball season, I was 125-67, including an incredible run of 83-36. We were in the fourth standard deviation, which only happens .0.3 percent of the time and is not normal.

The drawback to that was that I set the bar so high that people began to expect 65+ percent going forward.

This season, baseball started out 38-21 (+17.9 units) and since then, has been 12-23 (-15.8 units) so we have definitely had some standard deviation.

Most people will experience three standard deviation ranges as they get to a larger adequate sample size at some point. Occasionally, we will even hit a fourth standard deviation as explained above. Major League Baseball is every day and I expect to experience these deviation ranges every few weeks.

However, in the end, I look to grind out a nice little profit and like I said on Showtime: “I just want to slice ‘em; I’m not looking to gut anyone”. It’s the old saying, “Pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered.”

I would like to make clear that one has to continue to maintain the proper psychological mindset in order to be successful. Sports bettors should never “overbet” and should establish “risk tolerance.” A successful sports bettor quantifies, analyzes, and truly understands and accepts risk. The emotional and psychological acceptance of risk is what determines your mental state in each bet.

My team and I run a very sophisticated computer program that has been back-tested and programmed to find and beat the inefficiencies in the sports betting market. We then apply the human element of research, reading and injuries to come up with a line on every single game before the actual line comes out.

I do not even consider what I do to be gambling. If I was in this to gamble, I would not put the time and energy into it that I do. I would be like everyone else in the sports book and read a few websites or a couple of newspapers and listen to the retired players or analysts on TV. I guess that would be fun but I assure you the only fun I have with this is beating the bookmakers.

End of Excerpt

Let me be clear: near-term losing will happen as sure as the seasons change.  The key difference for a successful, long-term professional bettor lies in their mindset and understanding of standard deviation.  Break-even for bettors is 52.38%.  For 25+ years, I have consistently surpassed that mark substantially every year.  The famous Jimmy Vaccaro said “55% is a MONSTER year” and he is right.  That means LOSING 45% of the time.  And sometimes it happens in more concentrated bursts.  That is why money management and not getting emotional is the hallmark of a professional.

I do not lose sleep with periodic losing streaks because 1) I have made my living this way for decades and 2) I know that I am not gambling.  I am playing with an edge that wins meaningfully over time.  In each bet/play, I have a 1-5% advantage that will yield great results over time (across 12 sports) and with enough sample size.  That is the KrackWins difference.  So, do not get unnerved or too low with a tough stretch…and do not get too high with a hot streak either.  Keep your discipline, know that the steady grind wins long-term, and keep your chin up.

By the way, those rough 3 weeks in May concluded with a 4th week that brought us within 1 unit of break-even for the month, followed by one of my best Junes ever.

Recap stats:

The NHL went  2-2, including a +120 and +125 winner (+.3 units).  NFL props went 3-3 (-.2 units.)  The NFL teaser won again (+1.75 units.)

College basketball had a losing week (totals 1-3 and sides 6-8) (-11.3 units).   NBA went 4-3 this week (+1.1 units), notching a 28-10 mark over the last month.

College football went 1-0-1 for the week (+2.25 units).  Add that up and you have 18-19-1 (-6.1 units).

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Author: Bill Krackomberger

Author: Bill Krackomberger

Professional Sports Bettor

I love to help and to teach people what I have learned the last twenty-five years as a consistently winning sports bettor.  I have been a guest on many networks, including ESPN, CNN, Fox Sports, VSIN and radio shows coast to coast as well as am featured in the new Showtime series “Action”. Download my app KrackWins to get my picks in live time. Read more about Bill Krackomberger.

Author: Bill Krackomberger

Professional Sports Bettor

I love to help and to teach people what I have learned the last twenty-five years as a consistently winning sports bettor.  I have been a guest on many networks, including ESPN, CNN, Fox Sports, VSIN and radio shows coast to coast as well as am featured in the new Showtime series “Action”.  Download my app KrackWins to get my picks in live time. Read more about Bill Krackomberger.

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