For decades, fans have been filling out office pool brackets hoping to win the big prize. I remember growing up and filling out my dad’s office bracket which was always inevitably won by a woman in accounting who didn’t know one single team and picked based on cuteness of the mascot. While everyone still loves to fill out their brackets, the game has changed.
The volume of total wagering during March Madness supersedes any other sports betting event, including the Super Bowl. With sports gambling fever at an all-time high and 38 States/Territories open for legal action, there is no question that this year will break records. On the court, the cream has risen to the top this season. Defending champion UConn will have a #1 seed and is a 6-1 favorite to win it all; with Purdue and Houston also around the 6-1/7-1 mark. With 67 games over the course of three weeks, there will be plenty of opportunities for advantage plays.
This season, for the first time in KrackWins history, I will be sending Standard and Premium subscribersmy completed bracket. Follow my selections or try to beat me. Should be a lot of fun. That said, once again, here are a few top KrackWins tips for cashing in on the Big Dance:
TIP NO. 1) FIRST HALF VALUE: The first half line offers more of a pure number than the game for a few reasons. First and foremost because the first half does not end with garbage desperate fouls being committed by losing teams trying to extend the game. I cannot tell you how many times I have lost tournament games that were winners for 39 minutes until fouling to the death by seniors playing their last game took my bet from a winner to a loser.
Staying with the first half theme, I like to bet the lower seeds (13-16) in the first round as these smaller-school kids, playing the biggest game of their lives, come out with a lot of emotion and in many cases, stick around longer than they should. While that adrenaline may carry them through the first 10-15 minutes, the talent and depth of the stronger teams usually takes over in the second half. I like to target some of these big underdogs in the first half.
TIP NO. 2) BIG NAMES = BIG ACTION: A lot of folks only really pay attention to college basketball in March. The big-name schools (UConn, UNC, Kentucky) are public favorites to bet, so there is already some value on the underdog schools people may not be as familiar with. During the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 these big-name favorites are bet down by the public enough that books are forced to move in favor of the dog.
TIP NO. 3) PROP ME UP: With more and more legal sportsbooks entering the proposition market, there are more bets than ever. This year’s player and team prop market for the NCAA Basketball Tournament will have the most options we’ve ever seen. There is no way the bookmaker can accurately set lines for this many options. Check out individual game player props across the board and look for +EV plays early before the books adjust.
TIP NO. 4) PROTECT YOUR BANKROLL: As we get into the second weekend, you should be reducing your wager volume. The lines get tighter as the tournament goes on. I like to only wager on high percentage plays. There are games on all day for the first two weeks and they are all on TV. As always, don’t bet a game just because it is next on the card. Bet with your head and not over it. March Madness is the most fun three weeks of the sports calendar. Cinderella’s, Buzzer Beaters, and cashing tickets all the way to that last One Shining Moment.
TIP No. 5) Dogs Early, Chalk Late: While you should be eyeing the underdogs in the first two rounds of the Big Dance, the cream usually rises to the top during the later rounds. Look for a few 11/12seeds to advance into the second week, but by time we hit the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 the clock usually strikes Midnight for these Cinderella runs.
Good luck to all. Enjoy the Madness and be on the look out for my completed bracket early next week!
