Well before the Supreme Court’s landmark ruling in May 2018 paved the way for legal sports betting, the futures market always got a lot of attention from the public. Wannabe pros would tout their ability to predict the future by showing off their World Series Champion bet they made before the season. (Of course, conveniently failing to inform the public that they also took 12 other teams.) Celebrities like Phil Mickelson showed everyone how smart he was when he cashed a Ravens Super Bowl bet that he had made for $50,000. Futures carry long odds and can be discussed throughout the year – so when a longshot winner hit, peacocking is sure to come along with it.
In reality, the futures market is difficult to breakdown and I often feel conflicted about how much to invest in it. The sports book has a sizable theoretical hold percentage advantage over the customer in the futures market. In fact, some books will only move the odds on the player/team future when it’s actually bet, while not changing the options on the other odds. This is simply criminal. When a book takes a big bet into a futures pool, they should always move the rest of the field. Let’s use last weeks PGA Championship as an example: If a book took a large play on Brooks Koepka at +2000 and thereafter moved his number to +1500, shouldn’t they also raise the odds of Jon Rahm from +750 to +850? But the majority of books don’t. In fact, for a weekly PGA event, many books have over a 30% hold!
There is only one way to counter that advantage when betting the futures market: LINE SHOPPING! You always hear me talk about how important line shopping is when making daily wagers; well that goes double for the futures market. For example, our Paolo Banchero NBA Draft No. 1 pick future that we sent out at +1200, was listed as low as +750 in certain spots and as high as +1800. It is up to you to line shop for the best available to you.
To that end, what we have been able to accomplish in the futures market at KrackWins since we started this journey 4 years ago is something I am really proud of. Remember, when you see touts posting winning futures on social media, you should assume they played at least five other bets in that pool which lost. The KrackWins team does not send out many futures, as I am keen about not tying up too much money at the start of the year. In the major sports, we usually give out one future per Conference/League. I also won’t bet more than once into the same season futures market. Our 2021 Shohei Ohtani AL MVP +3500 was the only MVP play we made that year. In 2020, we had a ridiculous year for futures, hitting Ja Morant NBA Rookie of the Year +525, Tampa Bay Rays AL Champions +950, and the 49ers to win the NFC at +2000.
Sports Betting Picks Weekly Recap
For the current NBA season we took two team futures before the year and had a shot at cashing both. The Philadelphia 76ers to win the East (+800) made it all the way to Game 7 of the Conference Semifinals before falling to the Celtics. But on Monday our Denver Nuggets to win the West cashed at +850. Overall our NBA futures netted 9.25 units. Closing the NBA year on fire, our player props ran hot and finished 10-2 through Monday night’s game.
Brooks Koepka won the PGA championship last week as we got back into the green with our golf matchups, going 3-1-1 (+2.6 units.) MLB went 3-4-1 (-1.8 units) and WNBA started 1-2 (-1.6 units.)
Overall KrackWins finished the week at 17-11-2, +15.4 units. I am always thankful to cash a good week with our loyal subscribers – even more so when we hit a bet that we made over 8 months ago. As always, let’s continue this success into the Summer as we finish the NBA season, and continue grinding in the PGA, WNBA, MLB and more.