I received an email two nights ago that said: “I hope you were in a padded and guarded room this weekend because some force was out to get you.
“Between the recent string of 8th or 9th inning bad beats in baseball, to golfers (Joel) Dahmen and (Tommy) Fleetwood blowing up on the golf course Sunday, and, of course, the double OT loss on the under on the Bucks game Sunday.”
I thanked him for the email and while I do appreciate his acknowledgment of the recent string of events, things like that will happen. The ”luck factor” will even out over the long term, and for sure, will help us down the line equally as much as it has hurt us this past weekend.
I will not bore you with Kelly Criterion or Monte Carlo simulations, which I have written on before. However, I would like to touch on standard deviation, which will happen throughout any long season of wagers.
Going into the NBA playoffs, my record was 255-186 for a 58 percent season. During this season, there were weeks where I was down 10 units for the week, only to rebound the following week, and end up winning 15 units.
I only bet NBA totals because they are beatable. And as far as I am concerned, NBA sides are just as tough to beat as the NFL sides. The last two nights’ overtime games are an example of that.
In the 2018-19 college basketball season, I was 125-67, including an incredible run of 83-36. We were in the fourth standard deviation, which only happens .0.3 percent of the time and is not normal.
The drawback to that was that I set the bar so high that people would expect 65+ percent going forward.
This season, baseball started out 38-21 (+17.9 units) and since then, has been 12-23 (-15.8 units) so we have definitely had some standard deviation.
Most people will experience three standard deviation ranges as they get to a larger adequate sample size at some point. Occasionally, we will even hit a fourth standard deviation as explained above. Major League Baseball is every day and I expect to experience these deviation ranges every few weeks.
However, in the end, I look to grind out a nice little profit and like I said on Showtime: “I just want to slice ‘em; I’m not looking to gut anyone.” It’s the old saying, “Pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered.”
I would like to make clear that one has to continue to maintain the proper psychological mindset in order to be successful. Sports bettors should never “overbet” and should establish “risk tolerance.” A successful sports bettor quantifies, analyzes, and truly understands and accepts risk. The emotional and psychological acceptance of risk is what determines your mental state in each bet.
My team and I run a very sophisticated computer program that has been back-tested and programmed to find and beat the inefficiencies in the sports betting market. We then apply the human element of research, reading and injuries to come up with a line on every single game before the actual line comes out.
I do not even consider what I do to be gambling. If I was in this to gamble, I would not put the time and energy into it that I do. I would be like everyone else in the sports book and read a few websites or a couple of newspapers and listen to the retired players or analysts on TV. I guess that would be fun but I assure you the only fun I have with this is beating the bookmakers.
Speaking of beating the bookmaker, across the pond at books like Paddy Power and even offshore they were offering odds on who would be ruling Westeros at the end of Game Of Thrones Season 8. There appeared to be a leak and Bran Stark went from a +600 underdog and quickly closed at -500, easily winning.
I have a feeling we will not be seeing odds on a scripted show again anytime soon.