The smell of pigskin is in the air and football handicapping is in full tilt for Team Krackwins. As many of you know by now, I am not a big NFL sides bettor. I have worked with the best betting syndicates in the world over the past three decades and none of them have been able to beat NFL sides consistently each year. An old timer told me once, NFL stands for “Not For Long” if you use your bankroll to bet NFL sides. Just like the saying goes, on any given Sunday, anything can and will happen.
This is NOT the case with NCAA Football.
All you need to know is when I walk up to a counter in Las Vegas to place a bet in the NFL, they will give me basically whatever I want. In NCAA Football, they are ready to call the police and say “stop that man, he’s committing robbery.” They limit me to 1/5th, or even 1/10th, of what I am allowed to bet on the NFL.
The bookmakers have to cover over 200 teams when handicapping NCAA Football. Compare that to the NFL, where you only need to cover 32 teams. Media coverage for the NFL also is quite extensive. We can find out what each QB had for breakfast at this point, or what kind of helmet they are wearing. College players don’t speak to the media 3-4 times throughout the week – only the coaches do. This information asymmetry, combined with over-extended line-makers, provides lucrative opportunities for me to develop a consistent edge, especially earlier in the season.
Here are 5 quick guidelines that I use when betting NCAA Football…
1. NEVER TEASE: Do NOT ever tease college football games, especially totals. I profitably use teasers on NFL Sides when the juice is correct, but neverbet NCAA Teasers.
2. DON’T LET THE WEATHER FOOL YOU: A lot of people have the common misconception that RAIN = UNDER. This is far from the actual truth. Usually, weather conditions are built into the totals. Sometimes, a weather forecast changes mid-week, but it does not necessarily mean to play under if you see a chance of rain. Wind and field conditions can provide advantages, but it still always depends on number.
3. CORRELATED PARLAYS DO EXIST: I know you’ve heard me say that I don’t play parlays, but some same-game football parlays do hold advantages. Over/Favorite and Under/Underdog can create advantages if the numbers are right. The problem is most sportbooks won’t take them. When they occasionally do, I strike.
4. SECOND-HALF ACTION: On a given Saturday, there may be over 80 games, with many of them playing at the same time. Combined with all the other sports that the oddsmaker/sportsbook has to handicap, the bookmaker’s job is much harder on a Saturday. If you are watching a game (smaller market especially), you may catch something that the linemaker hasn’t caught yet when producing a 2nd-half line.
5. STAY AWAY FROM HAWAII: I know a lot of people who chase the last game on the board every night. Don’t add a game that you didn’t like in the first place just because you are down, or even because you have some extra dollars from daytime wins.
College football is traditionally one of my strongest sports, so get ready to sharpen up and break the book with KrackWins!