You have been patiently waiting for months since the confetti fell onto Tom Brady for the umpteenth time last February. Finally, when the Bucs and Cowboys kick off Thursday night, the NFL season begins. Baseball’s moniker of “America’s Pastime” is just that – past time, as the NFL now dominates our country’s sporting consciousness more than any other sport. Three years after the Supreme Court opened the door for state legalized sports gambling, the NFL’s popularity continues growing to even greater heights. Five years ago, the NFL commissioner said the league would not embrace sports betting. Now, there are stadiums sponsored by sportsbooks. Times have changed, but my winning football betting strategy has not!
We all know that by a wide margin, the NFL is the public’s favorite sport to bet. What most people do not know is that it also is the toughest to beat. Tight lines and traps lure the public towards danger each week. I have consistently won on the NFL over the past 25 years with my unique, advantage-driven method: focusing on NFL totals, teasers, individual player props, and futures bets throughout the year. Here are some key tenets to the wise for surviving (and thriving) in the NFL this year.
NFL Football Betting Strategies
Always be able to separate entertainment vs. money. Historically, the most heavily wagered games are not the most profitable. In fact, the opposite is true. Resist the temptation to bet on the standalone games – Thursday Night, Sunday Night, and Monday Night – simply because they are the only game on TV and you plan on watching it. More money has been lost on these games than all other games combined. When considering a bet, think about it as if it was one of another dozen games on Sunday. If there’s an edge, play it; otherwise, relish in the fact that you can enjoy these games without losing money on it as those around you do.
Always line shop. Football spreads, especially the NFL, are incredibly tight. A point or even a half point can make a huge difference over the course of a season. If possible, always search multiple sources for the best number out there and if your book has a bad number, DO NOT BET THE GAME.
Always look for key numbers in NFL games. Because NFL teams most often score in multiples of 3 or 7, getting off or on these key numbers can have a significant effect on your winning percentage for the year. Roughly 42 percent of all NFL games end up with the final score reflecting one of these five margins (3, 4, 6, 7, 10).
Always keep your discipline. As I have preached over and over for years, the golden rule of betting in general is to manage your bankroll and only wager what you can afford to lose. This is true in all sports, but especially in the NFL where the set schedule of kickoff times always leads to chasing. Sports books make their yearly nut on people chasing their losses on the “I need to win this bet so I can avoid a losing week”. Don’t be a sucker. Chasing has ruined more lives than I care to remember.
In general, most sharps will tell you to avoid betting teasers. While I generally agree with that, there is one exception. I make good money every year teasing NFL sides (not totals). I am very selective though and look for teases that can take me through the key numbers of 3, 4, 7, and 10. Three team teasers paying +170 or better can be smart bets, though their availability is fewer and farther between as the books have slowly caught on. Get them while you can.
Do not overlook player props. While I have never played fantasy football, the rise of the industry itself has put good money in my pocket over the last decade through betting player props. The tons and tons of data out there for fantasy heads has fueled a plethora of player prop options in most books, especially for prime-time games. With the good analysis and information, there are multiple advantage plays every week.
Finally, have fun. You work hard to have enough disposable income to bet on the weekends. Don’t waste it. If winning consistently as a sports bettor was easy, everyone would quit their jobs and do it. It’s hard to win, especially with the NFL. The most important thing to remember is that you should be betting for enjoyment, not to make this month’s rent. Always keep perspective and manage your bankroll.
If you want to improve your chances at profiting consistently, then heed my pointers above and get the KrackWins team in your corner to guide you. We delivered an excellent winning NFL season last year with my approach. Pigskin is in full bloom. Let’s do this thing!