In 2020, as we battled the pandemic and how to play sports in the safest way possible, one of my most profitable football betting windows was taken away. NFL teams had to shorten the offseason and training camps last year, leading to the cancellation of all preseason games. Since the KrackWins app launched, we have gone 23-6 on the NFL Preseason, including 15-3 in 2019. Predating the app, the I have made handsome profits on preseason games over the years. As I have said numerous times, I do not think NFL sides are beatable long-term (totals, future, and props are completely different). Before you start sending me your record from last year, what I mean is beating NFL sides just isn’t sustainable over a long period of time. There is nowhere near the advantage that there is in NCAA Football sides. That said, the NFL Preseason is an entirely different story.
The 2019 preseason was one of the most profitable that I have had over my 3 decades of betting sports. At one point, we won 15 of 18 plays and most of games weren’t even close. In a smaller market like preseason NFL, I do not judge the strength of the play merely on whether it wins or loses…but by how much I beat the closing number. My PGA Matchups, for example, move 15-25 cents by time the matchup goes off the board. While that is very strong movement, these preseason NFL games move even more. I have had games that we send out -7 and it closes +3.5. Sound crazy? It would never happen in a regular season unless a strike occurred, and the “Scabs” were playing. But this is where my insider edge makes the difference.
Pro Football Betting Strategies For The Preseason
Information is key in preseason games. These games are exhibitions, so coaches obviously approach them that way. They want to avoid injuries and frequently the starters will only play one possession. Coaches are sending in players throughout the depth chart to assess them for cuts. These changes in personnel produce wild line movement that you would never see in a regular season game. So having good information early is critical. And over the last 30 years, I have developed outstanding intelligence, which, combined with my knowledge of the handicapping markets, translates to a meaningful edge that makes me salivate at these volatile lines.
A common question that I get during the NFL preseason is “Hey, I got your play at +6 and now it’s -3. Should I hedge and how much?”. I do not hedge because of the size of the middle. If we own a ticket for +6, betting the -3 is giving our value away that we have with the +6 ticket. So, the simple answer is no, I do not hedge single game bets.
You can always tell where we have the greatest advantage by the casinos and bookmakers. Their betting dollar limits on games tells me what their confidence level is on the lines they set. They will let me bet at least 100 times more on an NFL regular season game than they do on a preseason game. I am sure the books are happy that preseason was cut from 4 to 2 games, which makes every game that much more important for KrackWins. So, roll with me to capture this unique opportunity to build profits going into the regular season!
Preseason NFL starts with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. The 6-time Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers versus the 5-time Super Bowl champion Dallas Cowboys. Are you ready for some football???!!!