Last year, the pandemic made sports and betting highly unusual. No sport was more disorganized and impacted than college football. Some conferences stated they would play as scheduled, some deferred until the spring (with a subset then moving back to fall), and some conferences cancelled their seasons. The eventual result was a makeshift season with most out of conference games being canceled. Cancellations occurred both in advance as well as on the day of the game. Most teams had significant players that missed time due to Covid-19. The FCS, one of my most profitable and off the beaten path niches, did not even play until the spring. Finally, few fans filled the stands, which impacted team performance much more than the NFL or pro sports leagues.
Unsurprisingly, it was a very tough season for handicapping college football. Nonetheless, we still grinded out a profit when all was said and done. A good result even if it was not our usual pocket-filling track record.
College Football Is Back
Now, football is back and fortunately the havoc-level is much lower (knocking on wood for it to remain so). The KrackWins team already has been handicapping pro and college for weeks.
As many of you know, I am not an NFL sides bettor. I have worked with the best betting syndicates in the world over the past three decades and none of them have been able to beat NFL sides consistently each year. Instead, I bet voraciously on NFL totals, teasers, and player props where I find plentiful advantage opportunities. I even mix in a few futures. More on that and NFL betting coming in my primer soon.
The reason I mention my NFL approach is that college football is a very different animal. With NCAAF, I am playing plenty of sides along with totals every week. I will explain why.
When I walk up to a counter in Las Vegas to place a bet on an NFL game, the casino generally will give me whatever dollar amount I want (props can be an exception). With NCAAF, they are ready to call security and yell “stop that man, he’s committing a robbery”. I always am restricted to 1/5th or 1/10th of the amount I can bet on the NFL.
With college football, the bookmakers need to cover over 200 teams each week. That is a massive difference from the NFL with only 32 teams. Beyond that, media coverage and social media chatter for the NFL far more extensive. We can find out what each NFL QB had for breakfast or what kind of helmet they are wearing at this point. College players do not speak to the media 3-4 times throughout the week. Only the coaches do. That leads to a major information gap. So, between that gap and the constant presence of soft lines (especially early season), my team can find plentiful advantage plays all season. Now you know why casinos limit me, why I attack NCAAF aggressively with consistent success, and why you should ride with KrackWins to profit handsomely from the football “amateurs”.
NCAA Football Betting Guidelines
Here are some important guidelines for betting NCAA Football…
1. NEVER TEASE: Do NOT ever tease college football games, especially totals. I profitably use teasers on NFL sides when the juice is correct, but never bet NCAA Teasers no matter what!
2. DON’T LET THE WEATHER FOOL YOU: A lot of people have the common misconception that RAIN = UNDER. This is far from the actual truth. Weather conditions usually are built into the totals. Sometimes, a weather forecast changes mid-week, but that does not necessarily mean to play under if you see a chance of rain. Wind and field conditions can provide advantages, but it still always depends on number.
3. CORRELATED PARLAYS DO EXIST – BUT ARE HARD TO EXPLOIT: I know you have heard me say that I don’t play parlays, which generally is the case. Occasionally, some same-game football parlays do hold advantages. For example, Over/Favorite and Under/Underdog can create an edge if the numbers are right. The problem is most sportbooks won’t take the action.
4. HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE: Last year, most states did not allow fans which heavily impacted the home field advantage. This year many stadiums will be packed and loud again, making it tougher for the away team to hear plays or snap counts. I expect some of the bigger games to have the most electric crowds we have ever seen! So, home field will become a relevant variable again in analyzing a bet.
5. STAY AWAY FROM HAWAII: I know a lot of people who chase the last game on the board every night. Never add a game that you did not like in the first place just because you are down, or even because you have some extra dollars from daytime wins. There are always games the next week to find a better advantage in. The volume is NCAAF is something that should not lead you astray.
6. KEY NUMBERS NOT AS STRONG: NFL has very strong key numbers that even the best and most seasoned professional sports bettors will buy to. This is not the case in college. I stay away from buying in most situations.
