Change is inevitable. Everyone knows that if you do not change and adapt, you will be left behind. Sports are no different. Go watch some of the Heat, Knicks, or Pistons games from the 1990’s and then compare those slugfests to the games today. Actually, you don’t even need to go back that far. Just a few years ago, NBA totals ranged from as low as 185 to as high as 220. Today, 220 is closer to an average. In the 2012-13 season, the average points scored per NBA team was 98.1. This past season, it was 112.1. That upward trend likely will continue with more athletic stars, more rules favoring the offense, and the fans’ insatiable desire for a wide-open game.
Which brings me to the NFL. The Thursday, Sunday, and Monday prime time games have seen multiple totals hit near 60 or above. Week One saw the Bucs and Cowboys hit 60, along with the Ravens and Raiders. Week Two saw WFT and the Giants hit 59 and the Chiefs and Ravens land on 71. Last Sunday, the Packers and 49ers tallied 58 and the Eagles and Cowboys produced 62 on Monday night. In fact, if you take out the games started by the rookie quarterbacks – Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, Davis Mills etc. – the scoring average this year would be even higher. Like the NBA, high scoring is what fans want to see and what drives ratings. As such, I fully expect this scoring escalation to continue over time, especially given the talent of the playmakers and the addition of new rules favoring the offense.
As for the betting angle…we all know that the public loves scoring and generally favors the over bet. The books have been taking some hits on these prime-time games. Keep your eye out for the books to make some slight yet meaningful adjustments on these totals in the upcoming weeks to the point where you may find some value in the under here and there. Let’s dive into my sports betting picks weekly recap.
Sports Betting Picks Recap
It was definitely an “over” week in the win column for KrackWins members as we followed up a big +16.4 unit result last week with a +12.8 unit profit this week (18-10 overall). NFL totals swept the board, going 5-0 (+8.75 units). Prop bets went 2-3 (-.6 units). Baseball is finishing the year on a tear, going 6-2 (+3.7 units) this week after a 4-1-1 mark last week. Finally, college football went 5-5 (+1 unit).
While I couldn’t be happier for our subscribers, you know that I never get too high or too low. We are in this for the season, for the year, and for good. Stay disciplined and remember to apply our money management guide to your growing bankroll. Have a great, fun, and profitable next week everyone.