Christmas, Thanksgiving, New Year’s Eve, the 4th of July. The Mount Rushmore of American days of celebration certainly needs space for one more – Super Bowl Sunday. I fully support those who want the day after the game to be an official holiday. Might as well acknowledge the American workforce is a step slower one Monday each winter. This year’s game takes on some extra significance given all that the country has been through since the last Super Bowl. This celebratory tradition will be good for the American psyche as we continue to crawl out of the pandemic toward a more “normal” way of life.
Some forecasters believe it could be the most watched game ever with so many folks confined to their homes. I also saw some projections suggesting that betting totals may dip compared to recent years because of household financial stress and the uncertain economy. We will see how it plays out, but I personally believe that all the new in-app betting options will fuel more wagering activity than expected.
As for the game…what can be said that hasn’t already? Many assert that this is the best Super Bowl QB matchup ever and you will not hear me arguing with them. The GOAT goes for his unprecedented 7th ring against the future GOAT trying to go back to back and land his second ring by the age of 25. The early money is coming in steadily on favored Kansas City – 76% of the dollars and 63% of tickets. I expect that to even out a bit as we approach kickoff.
Super Bowl LV Prop Bets Strategy
My sights are set elsewhere. I expect to make some sort of wager on the game total, but will have over 100x that on a mountain of proposition bets. As KrackWins members know, prop bets have been exceptional for us this year and drove much of our success this NFL season. Winning prop bets is about good, timely information, research, and analysis – and that is where my team excels. We siphon through the dozens of available bets and find choice ones with the best value.
It is hard enough for the books to get a side or total right every time, much less a hundred different prop lines. As a general rule, Joe Public leans towards betting overs. Their brain sees “Tom Brady 1.5 TD passes” and they immediately think “Oh, it has to go over that”. That tendency frequently leads to the more popular props being a touch overvalued. So, one strategy I often use will be an under prop later in the week once the number has reached its peak.
The fun thing about prop bets during the Super Bowl is that everyone can get involved, no matter how little you follow sports. For example, even before the game starts, there are four bets you can make on the coin toss alone (I usually bet tails).
The First Prop Bet Long Shot Winner
No one in Vegas is quite sure which Super Bowl novelty wager came first, but just about everyone there can tell you the first big long shot that won. Thirty years ago, Caesars Palace gave 20-1 odds on Refrigerator William Perry rushing for a TD during Super Bowl XX. Though the Fridge had scored twice during the regular season, Coach Ditka had said he would not deploy the defensive tackle as a running back in the game. Then Ditka changed his mind and Caesars took a hit.
Prop Betting Stories – The Anthem and Gatorade
I have more than a few classic prop stories. A decade ago, I was betting Christina Aguilera ‘under’ on the national anthem in the Packers-Steelers Super Bowl. I did all the research on YouTube — from when she was a little kid, singing at 8 years old, right up to the night before the Super Bowl, when she sang the national anthem at a hockey game — knowing we had a good edge on ‘under’ two minutes and 33 seconds, or whatever it was. And sure enough, she finished at 2:17 for an easy winner…or so you would think. The books said that she missed one of the words and cancelled the bet. That was the last National Anthem bet I made.
I had the scoop on the color of the Gatorade that would be dumped on the winning coach in the second Giants-Patriots Super Bowl. My tip was that it would be “clear”. When the Giants won and they dumped it on him, it happened so fast the blue of the Giants jacket he was wearing made it look blue. On the replay, there was a split second where you could see it come out of the bucket as clear. I actually had to freeze-frame that, blow it up, and get a high-resolution snapshot. I had to fight with every bookmaker to get paid.
While these bets certainly are fun and make good war stories, the majority of my money will be on individual player props, like longest reception, total carries, and the like. A number of prop bets have already gone out to our members and we expect a few more to be released before kickoff. Let’s get into my sports betting picks recap from this past week.
Sports Betting News and Picks Recap
As for the past week, it was another winner overall despite having our first losing CBB week of the season. The NBA stayed strong, going 3-1 (+3.3 units). NCABB went 8-9 (-3.8 units). The NHL broke even at 1-1 and the sole PGA play was a winner (+1.75). Overall, we landed at 13-11 (+1.4 units) for the week.
While the last football game of the year is on Sunday, we will be attacking more than enough sports to keep us busy. So, if you are a “football only” person, I strongly encourage you to stick with us and learn to win with some of our best performing sports as we approach the spring. White hot college hoops heads down the closing stretch and into March Madness. Stay tuned for some special action surrounding the tournament that we missed so much last year. Our NBA plays have been running really well. And seasoned subscribers know that we always are excellent with golf.
As for Sunday, whether you have action or not, here’s to a competitive game and the hope that it provides a day of joy and good cheer with those close to you. Enjoy!