A quick note that this sports betting picks recap covers the past 3 weeks from 6/28 to 7/18. Given the time of the year, sporadic volume, and some exciting new KrackWins initiatives I am working on (stayed tuned!), we decided on a longer multi-week recap. Moving forward, we will get back into the rhythm of weekly recaps, as the faint whiff of pigskin and whispering breeze of fall volume already is in the air.
Stay Disciplined During The Dog Days Of Summer
You may be tired of hearing it from me, but I will continue to preach. Staying disciplined through rough or mediocre stretches is the hardest but most important thing that a sound bettor can do. The overwhelming reason that people bust out or incur painful financial damage is they stray from disciplined game selection, bankroll management, and/or try to chase losses. The summertime, especially the dog days, can be especially dangerous if one tries to chase during a lower volume time of year because of losses, impatience, or boredom.
For me, betting is way of life 364 days a year. I don’t take a summer vacation, not even during the dog days. With my advantage, there are too many opportunities to pad my bankroll with baseball and smaller market plays like golf and WNBA. Over my thirty years of experience, I have learned a great deal about how to handle this 6-7 week stretch from failures and successes.
Summertime Sports Betting Strategies
The summertime presents interesting challenges when analyzing the lines and the moves. A good example is baseball. The games just before and just after the All-Star break can be tricky to handicap. Teams may alter rotations and rest players to allow stubborn injuries to heal. I never shy away from a game where I see an edge, but typically will play a slightly lower volume and dial up my discipline an extra notch to mitigate that risk. To use the batting analogy, checking your swing and laying off a game can be extra important. Source information becomes even more critical as sharps and bookmakers race to navigate the uncertainty. As MLB enters the second half with the playoff run in focus, we expect the volume to increase some.
Betting The NBA Playoffs
This past week marked the end of an entertaining but very strange NBA playoffs. The last few games of the Finals could have gone either way against the spread, depending on fouls and end of the game garbage-time baskets. That is why I infrequently play NBA sides (and bet lower unit amounts when I do so) as well as preach line shopping. If you got a bad closing number betting those games, you could have lost needlessly. In any case, the Suns (who made the finals by beating the Anthony Davis-less Lakers and the Kawhi-less Clippers) were bested by the Bucks (who made the finals by beating the Kyrie Irving and mostly James Harden-less Nets by a toe and the Trae Young-less Hawks). It was great story for Milwaukee and Giannis. And one could just as easily have been pulling hard for Phoenix, Chris Paul, and Devin Booker. From a betting perspective, I tip my cap to anyone who made money during this year’s playoffs. With the shortened offseason that led to non-stop injuries, it was a minefield. Let’s dive into my sports betting picks recap for the past few weeks.
Sports Betting Picks Recap
So, here’s how we have fared the past three weeks. Baseball has been a push, going 17-15-1 (-.5 units). The two PGA tourneys leading up to the British Open had a 1-1 matchup record, while the year’s final major went 2-1-1 on matchups and 0-2 on props. Like baseball, golf has been break-even. NBA and WNBA went 0-2 (-2.5 units). Finally, in a rare soccer play, England let down not just any entire country, but KrackWins as The Three Lions lost on penalty kicks (-1.3 units). Overall, for the three weeks, we are 20-22-2 (-4.3 units). Those numbers don’t make me jump up and down, but treading water sometimes is what you accept gratefully enough during a low volume, dog days stretch as you prepare to start a big run into the fall.
Speaking of which, I am salivating for August. Minicamps are starting in the NFL. As rosters take shape, futures and player props are on the horizon. Plus, after a year off, preseason NFL football is back. As our long-time members know, we historically do very well on these “games that don’t matter”, as inside information regarding motivation and playing time become paramount. We also have a strong track record on futures and props. Finally, KrackWins has an outstanding historical performance on early season college football (with a notable exception last year because of the pandemic impact). Stay tuned for my preseason NFL betting tips as well as my NFL + NCAAF football primers soon. Finally, we have an exciting Sweepstakes coming to celebrate the upcoming football season.
So, my friends, do not be lulled too much by the lazy dog days and a bit of soft performance. The big action is drawing close, and I am preparing to sharpen you up to profit from it.